While industrial production still has a lot of catching up to do (see here the current report of the state statisticians), the mood in industry seems to be improving rapidly. The following chart shows just how good the mood seems to be again. Unlike actual production, the Corona crisis has already been fully overcome, and we are back on top! The chart shows the course of production expectations since 1991, based on surveys by the ifo Institute.
The German industry expects an increase in production in the coming three months. The ifo production indicator rose to plus 4.3 points, after minus 19.5 in May. This is the second largest increase in this indicator since reunification. For the first time in three months, the ifo says that the proportion of companies that want to expand their production is now outweighing the others. Especially in the automobile industry, the mood has brightened surprisingly, at least according to the survey. The mood in the auto industry, for example, is one of real optimism. There the index of production expectations jumped to plus 50 points in June, after minus 24 points in May. Mechanical engineering companies are an exception. The majority of the companies surveyed do not expect production to expand in the next three months. The production index rose to minus 26 points in June, after minus 33 in May.
However, in most sectors of industry, expectations jumped from a significant minus in May to a significant plus in June. Here are further statements from ifo in full:
Only the manufacturers of rubber and plastic goods recorded larger increases to plus 9 points, after minus 36 in May. The clothing industry recorded minus 33 points, after minus 84.
The food industry expects production to expand. The indicator rose to plus 18 points, after minus 3 points. The majority of those surveyed also expected furniture and pharmaceutical manufacturers to expand production: plus 11 points each in June. The indicator rose to plus 9 points for chemical companies in June, after minus 17 points in May. The indicator rose to plus 8 points for manufacturers of print products and to 0 points for leather goods manufacturers, after minus 29 points in May.
In metal production and processing the index rose to minus 20 points after minus 36 in May. The index rose to minus 16 points in June for the producers of wood and wickerwork. It rose to minus 15 for the producers of computers and minus 13 for the textile industry. The index rose to minus 8 points for the producers of metal products and electrical equipment. To minus 3 for the producers of glassware and to minus 2 for the paper industry.