Rising import prices: No Nothing ECB – without oil nothing runs at all

German import prices rose by 1.4% year-on-year in April. As in the previous months the rate of increase thus remains rather sluggish. Last year there were percentage increases of more than 3% or even 4% for some time. Oil import prices rose by +9.9% in April. If only oil and petroleum products were excluded import prices would have risen by only 0.6% overall.

This shows once again that the ECB’s statements are nonsense. With its zero interest rates and 2.6 trillion euros of money-printing orgy it has got up the inflation rate. No! It rises and falls with energy prices – even if at this point import prices are “only” important leading indicators for final inflation (consumer prices). The chart since 2015 shows energy prices far above average. Without them the average would be a dead loss.

Here are further details on the current import prices from the Federal Statistical Office:

Prices for imported intermediate goods were on average 1.1% higher than in the same month of the previous year (+0.1% compared with the previous month). Compared with April 2018 iron ores ( +27.6%) and precious metals and semi-finished products (+13.3%) in particular became more expensive. In contrast prices for electronic components were lower than in the same month of the previous year (-5.4 %).

In April 2019 import prices for consumer goods (consumer goods) rose by 1.6% year-on-year (+0.3% month-on-month). Non-durable consumer goods were 1.7% more expensive than in the previous year. Import prices for consumer goods rose by an average of 1.1%.

Prices for imported investment goods were 0.6 % higher in April 2019 than in April 2018 falling slightly by 0.1 % compared with the previous month. While machinery (+1.8%) and cars and their parts (+0.7%) were more expensive year-on-year. Smartphones (-9.7%) and tablets (-8.1%) were imported at lower prices than in April 2018.

Imported agricultural goods were on average 2.5 % more expensive than in April 2018 (+0.3 % compared to the previous month). While potatoes (+24.9 %) and livestock pigs (+20.2 %) became more expensive year-on-year. Apples (-17.5 %) and green coffee (-9.6 %) were imported at lower prices.

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