Purchasing Manager Indices: The gentle plant of hope

How much we had waited for the purchasing managers’ indices of the major industrial nations. After all, stock prices have risen further since the last survey, while this is not reflected in the current economic data. So how would these figures turn out? There is indeed a slight upturn overall, but this does not mean that the turnaround has already been achieved.

The series of numbers

It had started in Japan with the Purchasing Manager indices – the results:

Manufacturing: 48.6 previous month 48.4

Services sector: 50.4 previous month 49.7

Then Europe`s numbers were released:

France

Manufacturing industry: 51.6 previous month 50.7

Services sector: 52.9 stable

Total: 51.7 Previous month 50.7

Germany

Manufacturing industry: 43.8 previous month 42.1

Services sector: 51.3 previous month 51.6

Total: 49.2 Previous month 48.9

The very recessionary production sector has thus risen noticeably, albeit at a still low level. We are sure not being the only ones looking forward to the Ifo index today. If the Ifo index has also risen, then we guess many of you may have erred in your assessment of the economy again.

Europe

Manufacturing industry: 46.6 previous month 45.9

Services sector: 51.5 previous month 52.3

Total: 50.3 Previous month 50.6

Great Britain

Manufacturing industry: 48.3 previous month 49.6

Services sector: 48.6 previous month 50.0

The British are clearly feeling the uncertainty caused by Brexit. Will they continue to play the game into recession?

In the next numbers came from the USA:

Manufacturing industry: 52.2 previous month 51.3

Services sector: 51.6 previous month 50.6

Total: 51.9 Previous month 50.9

Then shortly afterwards the index of the University of Michigan with the US consumer confidence:

96.8 points versus 95.7 in October

This means that there is currently no sign of a slump in leading indicators and consumer confidence, and that there even appears to be a slight upward trend at a low level.

In brief


The day of the many purchasing managers’ indices brought stable or improved early indications with the exception of the Brexit-bagged Brits. As far as the US is concerned, however, this could lead to another misinterpretation of its president. After always claiming rock-solidly that the Chinese are paying the tariffs – “they pay billlions of billions of Dollars” – he could now assume a strong US economy in order to continue playing poker in awareness of the strength in the trade dispute. But as just stated, the longer the suspension lasts, the bigger the losses will be – albeit delayed.

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