Outlook on the markets: Two negative US impulses, lousy Japanese data, Dax with gap

Thursday starts with a big negative impulse from the US stock market, which should also affect the Dax. Netflix reported its quarterly figures yesterday after the close of trading. Even though the financial data even exceeded expectations… user growth was only half as high as expected. And that with expectations that were only half as high as in the previous quarter. The number of new users dropped from 9.6 to 2.7 million from the 1st to the 2nd quarter. A mega disappointment for the market, with the result that yesterday’s share price plummeted by 12% after trading. This sets a negative basic impulse this morning!

Dax influenced by Asia and trade war

The Dax (in the chart since last Friday) will probably open today with a gap. Yesterday evening it was still indexed at over 12,300 points, today it is around 12,220 points in the pre-market. The situation is currently worsened by lousy data from Japan. The data for June shows exports falling by 6.7% year-on-year (worse than expected) and imports falling by 5.2% (significantly worse than expected). This could be an indication of the effects of the trade war. It could also be an indication of the global economic slowdown! Equity indices in Asia are currently falling. Another negative factor for the equity market as a whole is that according to recent reports in the US media, trade talks between the US and China have come to a standstill.

Important US data

The Philly Fed will be the only major economic news release today at 2:30 pm in the United States. And at 1:00 pm Morgan Stanley announces its quarterly figures. We report on both events.


SAP just presented its quarterly results. We will discuss these figures in a separate article in a future issue. According to yesterday’s US crude oil inventory data the oil price is about 1 dollar weaker. Yesterday the price of gold rose noticeably from 1,403 to 1,428 dollars in the wake of the news of “trade talks at a standstill”. It is currently trading at 1,422 dollars. Here we could see the classic flight “Out of stocks, into Gold”.

Here is a very recent chart technical view at the start of trading for the Dax.

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