A few moments ago, the Federal Statistical Office published new orders for German industry (manufacturing) for the month of September. The German business press will probably interpret these figures as positive today. Because people like to look at the monthly comparison, i.e. the change from August to September. There is a seasonally adjusted plus of 1.3% (expected +0.1%). But in the important year-on-year comparison to September 2018, there is another dramatic decline of 5.4% in incoming orders! In August it was already a year-on-year decline of 6.5%. The industry will therefore also have to deal with significantly lower production volumes in the following months in a year-on-year comparison! Because now fewer orders means less actual production in several months.
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Is the slump in German industry now reaching the labour market? It is well known that the labour market is a lagging indicator that reacts late to developments that have already begun in the past. […]