Labour market indicator at lowest level in six years! Rising unemployment expected

The official German labour market barometer, published by the “Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung” (IAB), a subsidiary of the Federal Employment Agency, currently has 101.6 index points. This is the lowest value for six years! The IAB has titled today’s report with the words “Headwind is getting stronger”. In July, the labour market barometer fell by 0.6 points.

We can see it clearly. In the graph for the labour market barometer, the trend on the labour market continues to go further down. According to the IAB, it is no longer expected that there will be a sluggish increase in jobs, but rather rising unemployment in the coming months. In its wording, the IAB goes on to say:

“In the current economic downturn, employment agencies are expecting a stronger headwind,” says Enzo Weber, head of the IAB research area “Forecasts and macroeconomic analyses”. It would be more difficult to place workers in cyclically dependent areas such as time-work. However, the current news about job cuts at large corporations is not representative of the labour market. “Overall, the rate of layoffs since reunification has never been as low as it is today,” Weber explains. This is also the main reason why employment continues to rise. The employment component of the IAB Labour Market Barometer in July is still clearly in the positive range at 105.2 points. Compared to the previous month, however, there was a decline of 0.8 points. “The labour market remains on course, but the economic downturn will not leave it completely unscathed,” Weber said.

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