Labor market : Divided development also in 2020

Parallel to the economic situation, the labor market will probably continue to develop in 2020 as it did in 2019. The Bundesbank, for example, has already referred to the two-tier economy several times this year. On the one hand, there is the industry with a sharp decline in sales, short-time work and layoffs. On the other hand, a flourishing construction sector that is working at full speed to maximum capacity. In addition, there are robust service sectors which, together with construction, are preventing the economy as a whole from sliding into recession, where industry has long since arrived.

The latest employment barometer from the ifo Institute has just been published. This is another forecast for the German labor market, where the barometer as an index is declining. The situation looks weak. Still, the labor market should remain robust in the coming year. It is and remains a strange dichotomy of the economy! ifo in wording:

German companies are somewhat more cautious in their search for personnel. The ifo employment barometer fell to 98.9 points in December, down from 99.5 points in November. Nevertheless, the upswing on the labor market will continue. However, the dynamics in 2020 are likely to be less strong than in 2019. The development in the sectors was divided. While the employment barometer fell in industry and services, it rose in trade and construction. In industry, the number of employees continues to decline. An increase in employment is still taking place in the service sector, albeit somewhat less strongly than recently. Logistics and IT are particularly important drivers here. In the construction sector, the continuing good order situation ensures a continuous increase in employment. In the retail sector, by contrast, the momentum is rather weak.

Arbeitsmarkt Barometer des ifo-Instituts
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