Incoming orders in the construction industry – a reflection of the beginning crisis?

Today, the Federal Statistical Office published data for new orders in the construction industry for the month of July. We would like to let the statisticians have their say on this at this point. Excerpts in the wording from the publication:

According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the real (price-adjusted) order intake in the construction industry in July 2019 was seasonally and calendar-adjusted unchanged compared to June 2019. In a three-month comparison, which is less susceptible to fluctuations. The real volume of seasonally and calendar-adjusted order intake from May to July 2019 fell by 4.1% compared to February to April 2019. This decline is attributable to the very high level of new orders, due to the particularly good development of the previous reporting months. Compared with the previous year, the calendar-adjusted real order intake in the construction industry was 2.4% higher in July 2019 than in July 2018.

So: Right now there is stagnation. In the three-month comparison a decrease. In the comparison to the previous year still a plus. What should we think? In our opinion, the year-on-year comparison is always the most important, because it enables us to make meaningful long-term comparisons of whether a market is really growing or declining. But let’s create an overall context again. Currently we have the incoming orders here.

While real estate prices are still booming (yesterday’s data), the purchasing managers’ index for the construction industry is clearly negative. A survey conducted this week by the DWI in the sector also shows that the downturn in the real estate sector has already begun. And the number of newly approved apartments has also been pointing downwards for months.

Well, the statistician would probably say now: “This very fresh figure of incoming orders in the construction industry, is currently slowing down the crash? At any rate, the overall picture seems to be more of a downturn.

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