Yesterday incoming orders for the industry showed very strong declines compared to the previous year. A few moments ago, the Federal Statistical Office published the data for actual industrial production (more precisely for “production in the manufacturing sector”) for the month of September. The monthly comparison, which in our opinion is much less important, but which is primarily observed by most press reports, shows a decline in industrial production of 0.6% from August to September. A decline of 0.4% was expected for today.
In the far more important year-on-year comparison from September 2018 to September 2019, industrial production declined by 4.3%. After already -3.9% in August. These are catastrophic slumps! Industry is fully in recession. It is still unclear whether it will ultimately pull down the service and construction sectors. The chart shows industrial production in blue since 2011. Construction as a red line is still running at full speed!