That German exports would collapse and that the mood would be bad was to be expected. But how lousy are current expectations? This can be seen by looking at the export expectations, which the ifo Institute published very recently today. The data is based on around 2,300 monthly reports from companies in the manufacturing sector. The companies are asked to report their export expectations for the next three months. They can mark their expectations for the next three months as “increasing”, “remaining the same” or “decreasing”. The balance value of the plans is the difference between the percentages of the answers “increase” and “decrease”. And what came out? The chart shows the current catastrophic crash! ifo on this with its statement in the wording:
The ifo export expectations of the industry have fallen from minus 1.11 to minus 19.8 points in March. This is the sharpest decline since reunification and the lowest value since May 2009. The corona pandemic is slowing down global trade. Cross-border logistics are becoming more difficult. Germany as an export nation is particularly affected by this. Export expectations have fallen in almost all industrial sectors, in some cases significantly. The automotive industry has been particularly hard hit. It is expecting significant declines in exports. The outlook for the mechanical engineering sector is also bleak. The same applies to manufacturers of textiles and clothing. A comparatively moderate decline was observed among manufacturers of electrical equipment and in the chemical industry.