Are german exports picking up again after the worst phase of the corona crisis seems to be over? With its monthly expectations for german industry exports, the Munich-based ifo Institute presents a good leading indicator. It asks 2,300 manufacturing companies how they assess their export expectations for the next three months. And after an index value of -50.2 points in the previous month, it is now “only” -26.9 points, according to the ifo Institute today. This strong increase is unique so far. However, the companies are still far from optimism. The german export economy, however, at least sees a silver lining on the horizon, according to ifo. The chart goes back to 2014 and shows the recent historically brutal crash. And then now the beginning of the recovery. Will it be a V-shaped recovery, as many observers hope for the stock market? Here are further statements from ifo in words:
A further decline in exports is expected in almost all sectors. However, this will be less severe than expected in the previous month. Export expectations have risen in all key sectors, in some cases significantly. The increase was clearest in the automotive industry. However, pessimism has also declined significantly in the electrical and electronic industry. In mechanical engineering, despite the improvement, sceptical voices continue to be clearly in the majority. The same applies to the metal production and processing sector.