Euro vs. US Dollar: Why the Euro may rise again today

100 Euro Geldscheine

The Euro against the US Dollar tried to leave the sideways phase several times on Friday. The pair behaved without big surprises at the end of the week. It was expected that many traders will close their short positions to hedge last week’s profits. On Friday morning, the Euro briefly rose against the U.S. Dollar, and the bulls have been trying to reach the break-out on the upper side. However, the resistance at 1.1240 was too strong. What followed, as is often the case in such situations, was a false break that caught many short-term traders on the wrong foot.

The price returned to the sideways range. After that, a dynamic developed on the underside and the Euro had to experience a slight correction again. The 1.1200 “big figure” was tested. A short spike to 1.1194 completed the downward movement. It was also the daily low at EUR/USD. Since the attack on the 1.1200 level had failed, the Euro could experience a small recovery in the afternoon hours.

In the evening hours, the price climbed above 1.1220 again, ending the last trading week at this level. This was not successful for our European currency. Strong correlations with the DAX, which had suffered from the turbulent fundamental news about Wirecard, also put pressure on the Euro. In the medium-term time frame, EUR/USD is still in a sideways phase. This may come to an end today. It is already noticeable that the next breakout is imminent. From a technical point of view, the Euro has the potential to recover. The bearish move of last week has been exhausted. One has just seen on Friday that below 1.1200 the Euro is no longer sold. In addition, the indicators are already in oversold territory in the mid-term time frame and will soon leave the extreme zone and generate fresh long signals.

The daily outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar

However, if you would like to buy the Euro vs. the USD today, you may want to wait until midday. The new tendencies will become apparent in the next few hours. If you remain patient, you may be able to get a better start. We will probably not see more momentum in the market until the afternoon, during the US trading session. It is important to note that this trading week will be shorter for the US traders, as due to the holiday (July 4th), the exchanges will be closed on Friday. Whether this year in the USA will be celebrated as generously as usual is rather questionable. The country is deeply divided and in a great economic crisis.

Currently the Euro vs. USD is trading at around 1.1240. The price is just hitting the 420 moving average, which is considered to be a strong resistance. In tonight’s Asian trading session, the pair was able to gain slightly. A gentle upward trend is being observed. However, the market is still very quiet. If the bulls in the European session manage to break the resistance at 1.1240 on a sustained basis, fresh momentum may be generated on the upper side. However, it is also possible that we will see very little volatility this morning.

The first significant resistance is at 1.1285. Should this hurdle be breached, the price will likely seek the 1.1300 level. It remains to be seen whether sufficient momentum will develop at the beginning of the week. If, contrary to expectations, the price should once again drop below the 1.1200 “big figure”, the market could be disappointed. The next support level is 1.1181. The daily pivot point for the Euro vs. the USD today is 1.1217.

Dieser Chart zeigt Euro gegen US-Dollar

The analyses shown here do not constitute investment advice and are therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell a security, futures contract or other financial instrument. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The analyses provided are for information purposes only and cannot replace an individual consultation. Any liability for direct or indirect consequences of these suggestions is therefore excluded.

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