Economic situation: This is the situation outside Europe

The ECB does not only analyse data for the euro area. In order to judge how things will work within the Eurozone, it makes sense to look at global economic trends. Today, the ECB published a report on how the economy is developing outside the Eurozone. And things don’t look too good there.

In the following chart the red line shows that according to Purchasing Managers’ Indices global industrial production (outside the Eurozone) has fallen below the 50 mark ( decline). It is now close to falling below its 2012 and 2016 lows.

In the following chart you can see in the red line the global new orders for exports (without Eurozone). They have slipped into the red and also start to scratch at the lows of 2012 and 2016.

And the result of this weakness is? The market expects further interest rate cuts by the central banks. Returns on debt are crashing into the ground. You can see this in the following chart. It shows the yield trend of ten-year government bonds since 2015. Germany in green is the lowest (the best credit rating). In blue you can see the average of the Eurozone, and in red the yield of ten-year US bonds. Interest rates there are still significantly higher than in the Eurozone.

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