The best season for the Dax actually starts these days – and professional investors seem to be thinking that they´re now getting more involved on the long side! According to Deutsche Börse’s survey, 48% of the professionals are now bullish (+ 3% the previous week), while the bear’s stock is only 22% (-6% the previous week). Accordingly, a relatively high proportion of 30% (+ 3%) is neutral. On the other hand private investors are more reluctant: While they´re still positive on the Dax with a bull share of 46% (-9%), only 22% are bearish. That´s what Joachim Goldberg says about it (translated):
“The rekindled optimism of the institutional market participants may have been decisive for the DAX increase compared to the previous week – the latter is homemade. Although the motive for the recent stock purchases, probably also in the rising market, may only be in the hope of a year-end rally, the associated optimism is not threatening. Because these engagements are likely to survive at least the Christmas holidays, and the associated window-dressing activities at the turn of the year despite the hidden risks in some areas. Naturally, this need does not exist for private investors, which is why profit-taking has just occurred there. In fact, their mood in the relative three- and six-month observations is even neutral on balance. The mood surrounding the DAX remains stable, especially as there´s still plenty of follow-up demand for renewed setbacks. “
Incidentally, US private investors interviewed weekly in the AAII survey have become much more optimistic, arguably with the much more concrete outlook for the US tax reform! 45.0% of surveyed US private investors are now bullish, whopping in relation to 8.1% last week, while pessimists are down -6.1% to just 26.1%. 26.9% are neutral (-2.0% to the previous week).