Bitcoin: Is $100,000 possible?

There was only one dominant topic on the weekend – and this was Bitcoin. The Crypto King broke the $10,000 level and reached a new year high for 2019 of $11,251. Although Bitcoin has falen somewhat from this level and is currently trading at 10,757. However, this is a strong comeback that Bitcoin fans have all been waiting for.

Bitcoin catches up 50% of its loss from all-time high

From a price perspective Bitcoin has recovered more than 50% of its losses from its all-time high of $20,000. The strong revival in Bitcoin’s price is mainly due to renewed interest in crypto currencies and the technology behind them. Projects like Facebook’s Libra have provided the much-needed tailwind.

In our previous studies we mentioned that the uptrend could be very volatile and this was due to speculators holding a large number of short bets according to the CFTC data released last Friday. A large number of short bets often result in a short squeeze. The following chart shows the large number of short bets for Bitcoin: non-commercial net contract bets enabled a short squeeze of the price rise – now Bitcoin has gained almost 214% from its 2018 low.

Nevertheless, the most important thing was the 24-hour volume for the most important crypto currency. It was at its highest level since December 2007, when the price quoted at 20,000 dollars. This shows that the game is fully under way because of numerous institutional players who jumped into this market. That’s because investors didn’t lose interest when the first bubble exploded – they just moved on the sidelines waiting for the next bull run to start.

The regional allocation of search queries

The Google trend search for “Buy Bitcoin” shows that most search queries come from predominantly African countries, with Nigeria taking first place ahead of South Africa and Ghana. However, the overall trend is still well below the May 2009 level. This confirms that the increase in the Bitcoin price is mainly due to institutional participation.

We think that the next rally will be much stronger than the previous one. You could call it a bubble, but this time the range could very well be between 60,000 and 100,000 dollars, as the technical analysis shows!

Naeem Aslam ist chief market strategist bei ThinkMarkets

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